Friday 26 April 2013

Mizuho Financial Global: Japan Still Short of a Plan to Address Debt


“Abenomics”, the creation of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, is already having an effect and has had investors cheering as renewed government spending and radical monetary easing aimed at ending 15 years of deflation in Japan, were initiated. The yen has devalued sharply and stocks are riding high, with the IMF sanctioning it amid Japan just avoided being accused of currency manipulation. But analysts at Mizuho Financial Global warn that it would be prudent for Japan to address its rising debt levels with comparable vigour by cutting welfare benefits and raising taxes in the medium term.

The problem is that the situation in Japan is so severe its gross public debt is projected to reach 230 per cent of GDP by 2014. The OECD gave its approval to Abenomics in a recent report but advised Japan to do far more in arresting increasing debt, saying that a reversal in the rise in the debt-to-GDP ratio is crucial. The same applies to the IMF, that want to see Japan prepare more ambitious plans to tackle the debt crisis that also include structural reforms to shift the economy into “higher gear”.

For years Japan’s low interest rates has allowed it to issue debt and not be inundated with servicing payments and the Japanese people, who are known for their propensity for savings, were content to buy government bonds. In stark contrast to countries such as Greece, nearly all debt in Japan is held domestically. However, risks persist, particularly if interest rates rise, which would add to Japan’s fiscal quandary, thus damaging the economy and the institutions holding government bonds.

Japanese policymakers, especially Finance Minister Taro Aso, have talked of risk mitigation, saying the government are well aware of the issue and that they are paying attention to it. But, even if interest rates remain low, Japan still needs to attend to long-term structural problems to rearrange the economy into a more supportable position. Analysts at Mizuho Financial Global, given the unparalleled extent of its debt ratio and the threat of higher interest rates, say that Japan needs a dependable medium-term plan to include spending cuts, tax increases and enhancements to its fiscal policy framework.

About Mizuho Financial Global:
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